New Studies by International Organisations Feature Migration as a Consequence of Land, Food and Water Scarcity
Publisher: Planetary Security Initiative
Author(s): Louise van Schaik, Tobias von Lossow, and Étienne Béchard
Date: 2018
Topics: Climate Change, Land, Renewable Resources
This report assesses the potential impact of climate change on internal migration and displacement. It argues that, by 2050, 143 million people will be considered climate migrants if no preventive policies are implemented. Due to lower freshwater availability, diminishing crop yield productivity and constantly rising sea levels coupled with storm surges, internal pressure on already vulnerable countries will have major effects on climate-dependent economic sectors, urban infrastructure and social support systems. On the ground, it can be expected that a large proportion of the rural population will migrate to urban areas, exceeding the cities’ ability to absorb such an influx and consequently increasing instability in those often overburdened areas. Indeed, the urban population is projected to quadruple from 100 million in 2010 to 350 million in 2050 under the most optimistic predictions and to exceed 450 million under the most pessimistic predictions.