When Grain Trade Is Obstructed: Black Sea Disruptions and Global Market Impacts

Oct 1, 2026 | International Food Policy Research Institute and Agricultural Market Information System
online
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The Black Sea region plays a critical role in global agricultural trade, supplying a significant share of internationally traded wheat, maize, and oilseeds. Yet ongoing disruptions to transport and export logistics—including damage to port infrastructure, shifting trade routes, rising freight and insurance costs, and heightened operational uncertainty—are affecting exports of agricultural commodities from the region. While global grain supplies remain generally adequate, constraints to moving grain efficiently can alter trade patterns, increase costs, and contribute to greater market uncertainty.

This seminar will examine how continued logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region are reshaping agricultural markets and affecting global food security. Bringing together market analysts and industry practitioners, the discussion will explore the implications for grain exporters, import-dependent countries, traders, and shipping service providers. Particular attention will be given to evolving export routes, transportation and insurance costs, market competitiveness, and the resilience of global grain supply chains in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Welcome Remarks and Framing

• Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary

Global Wheat Markets: Navigating Renewed Black Sea Uncertainty

• Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist, International Grains Council (IGC)

Trading Through Disruption: The View from Ukraine

• Nikolay Gorbachov, President, Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)

Beyond Ukraine: Shifting Flows from Russia and Other Origins

• Indrek Aigro, Head of Business Development, Copenhagen Merchants

Panel Discussion

Session 1: How Disrupted Is Grain Trade Really?

• Nikolay Gorbachov, President, Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)
• Indrek Aigro, Head of Business Development, Copenhagen Merchants
• Brian Arnold, President, The DeLong Co., Inc., Grain and Feed Trade Association (GAFTA)
• Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist, International Grains Council (IGC)

Session 2: Costs, Competitiveness and Changing Trade Patterns

• Malak Al Akiely, CEO, Golden Wheat for Grain Trading
• Brian Arnold, President, The DeLong Co., Inc., Grain and Feed Trade Association (GAFTA)
• Indrek Aigro, Head of Business Development, Copenhagen Merchants
• Nikolay Gorbachov, President, Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)

Session 3: Food Security and Policy Implications

• David Laborde, Director, Agrifood Economics and Policy Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
• Malak Al Akiely, CEO, Golden Wheat for Grain Trading

Moderators

• Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary
• Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI

• 9:30 – 11:00 am (America/New_York)
• 3:30 – 5:00 pm (Europe/Amsterdam)
• 7:00 – 8:30 pm (Asia/Kolkata)