Why Early Warnings Are Critical for Climate Action and Conflict Prevention
Publisher: United States Institute of Peace
Author(s): Brittany Croll and Cassandra Schneider
Date: 2024
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Conflict Prevention, Disasters
Amid a changing climate, understanding the interplay between extreme environmental events and conflict is only growing more important. Droughts, floods and other natural disasters can exacerbate socioeconomic vulnerabilities, highlight weaknesses in governance, disrupt livelihoods and increase perceptions of marginalization.
The resulting instability opens the door for non-state armed groups (NSAGs) to flourish. These groups often capitalize on grievances to assert control over resources and services. As a result, there is increasing overlap between areas that are vulnerable to extreme environmental events and areas where NSAGs are most active.
However, the relationship between natural disasters and conflict is not absolute, and in fact can provide opportunities for positive collaboration. Communities often come together in the wake of disaster — but this cooperation tends to be short-lived without good governance to help sustain it.
As such, there is shared interest among the climate, security and peacebuilding communities in expanding the use of climate early warning systems. These early warning systems have the potential to increase governments’ preparedness and responsiveness to environmental events, which in turn can stifle the conditions that enable NSAGs.