From Crisis to Conflict: Climate Change and Violent Extremism in the Sahel
Publisher: Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Author(s): Kitty Mant, Jaynisha Patel, and Sandun Munasingshe
Date: 2024
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Governance, Land, Renewable Resources
The central Sahel region is a stark testament to the devastating effects of climate change. The region is now in a sustained emergency. The consequences of inaction here will ripple across continents, underscoring the need for immediate, practical solutions. Across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, we are witnessing climate change unfold with alarming intensity. The Sahel’s temperature is rising at 1.5 times the global average, as extreme weather events multiply and become more severe. Long-term shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns are destabilising entire communities – disrupting traditional ways of life, eroding livelihoods and threatening food security. The impact of these shifts is transformative. Violent-extremist groups, including factions associated with ISIS and al-Qaeda, are embedding themselves in societies already grappling with economic and environmental hardships. These groups exploit resource scarcity – especially around water and land – to recruit those who have been pushed to the edge, exacerbating governance voids and fragmenting the region. Mali and Burkina Faso now rank as the world’s first and third most terrorism-affected countries, underscoring the severity of the situation for stability across the African continent and beyond. This report provides an analysis of the overlooked intersection between escalating climate-induced scarcity and rising conflict in the central Sahel. Our findings reinforce our initial call for the international community’s renewed engagement – emphasising the critical steps needed to operationalise the Sahel Compact with climate resilience as a strategic priority for stability throughout the region.