Rebels in a Changing Climate: Insurgent Perspectives on Disasters and the Rise or Fall of Rebellion
Publisher: Global Environmental Change
Author(s): Tobias Ide, Dahlia Simangan, Debendra Prasad Adhikari, Isabella Romero Ángel, Pablo Andresa Ramos Baron, Dennis F. Quilala, and Bishnu Raj Upreti
Date: 2026
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Disasters
Countries: Colombia, Nepal, Philippines
The nexus between climate change and armed conflict has received considerable attention by scientists and decision makers. Existing evidence highlights that the impact of climate disasters on insurgencies is not unidirectional. Droughts, floods, and storms can have positive as well as negative impacts on armed groups. The authors study why and under what circumstances rebel groups benefit from or are constrained by climate disasters. To do so, we draw on unique empirical material that brings forth the perspectives of those affected by climate extremes and engaged in insurgencies. Specifically, we conducted 55 interviews with former rebels in Colombia (FARC/EP), Nepal (CPN-M/PLA), and the Philippines (CPP/NPA). The authors find that insurgents frequently engage in disaster risk reduction activities and can hence be important non-state environmental governance actors. These results also provide support for various causal mechanisms connecting disasters to improved or worse prospects for rebellion. Territorial control, strong capacities (not in general, but only in the disaster realm), and good rebel-civilian relations allow insurgents to benefit from climate disaster-related opportunities and to cope with adverse disaster impacts. When studying the climate-disaster-conflict nexus, it is therefore key to understand the structure and social relations of non-state armed groups.