More Than Three-Quarters of Environmental Migration in Somalia Is Driven by Water Deficiency for Food and Livestock Production
Publisher: Nature Food
Author(s): Sinafekesh Girma Wolde, Paolo D’Odorico, and Maria Cristina Rulli
Date: 2026
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Disasters
Countries: Somalia
Global hydroclimatic extremes are drivers of human displacement in Africa, particularly within farming, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities. Somalia experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons in recent years and is strongly impacted by drought and food insecurity. Here the authors develop a holistic analysis of geospatial data, demographic surveys, hydrological modelling and multivariate spatial analysis to examine the multi-faceted challenges posed by agricultural water scarcity, food insecurity and drought on environmental migration trends in Somalia. The authors fill reporting gaps arising from limited humanitarian access and data collection, documenting departure location and reasons underlying individual decisions to move from over 40,000 cases. The authors find that, between 2015 and 2021, 76–91% of environmental migrants departed from statistically significant multivariate hot spots of drought, food insecurity and agricultural water scarcity, highlighting the urgent need for integrated strategies that address water availability for food security and proactive interventions and policies in areas most susceptible to compounded hydroclimatic variability impacts.