The Renewable Energy Transition and Political Stability in the MENA Region
Publisher: Notes internacionals CIDOB
Author(s): Martijn Vlaskamp
Date: 2025
Topics: Conflict Prevention, Extractive Resources, Governance
Countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to start a slow decline over the next decade, driven by rising renewable energy use and the electrification of transportation and heating. This article explores how declining oil demand may affect political stability in oil-rich Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. While many of them remain among the world’s lowest-cost producers, falling prices could strain their public finances. If oil revenues decline structurally, some regimes may struggle to fund public services and maintain legitimacy. Governments face a choice: delay socioeconomic reforms to avoid short-term unrest - risking long-term vulnerabilities - or pursue disruptive changes to build long-term resilience. Striking a balance will be a major challenge for oil-rich MENA countries in the coming decade.