Adapting to Climatic Variability along International River Basins in the Middle East
Publisher: Anthem Press
Author(s): Neda A. Zawahri
Date: 2017
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Cooperation, Governance, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Israel, Jordan, Palestine, Syrian Arab Republic, Türkiye
Various climate- change models are predicting an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation and an increase in the evaporation rate for the riparian states sharing international rivers in the Middle East, such as the Jordan, Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. Experts also anticipate an increase in weather extremes, such as floods and droughts, and a decrease in the overall freshwater supplies throughout the Middle East. In this region of the world that is already plagued by severe freshwater shortages, any decrease or variability in supplies is likely to intensify an already stressful crisis and contribute to significant direct and indirect losses. It can also exacerbate interstate and intrastate conflicts and compromise states’ ability to comply with existing treaties or protocols governing the region’s international rivers.
To minimize the social, economic and political losses from the anticipated changes produced by climate variability, experts have searched for means by which society, states and the international community can build adaptive capacity to minimize their vulnerability. One area that will require improved adaptive capacity but that has been largely neglected by the existing literature is interstate institutions, in particular river basin commissions established to manage international rivers. Drawing on neoliberal institutionalism, an international relations theory about the role of institutions in facilitating cooperation, this chapter explores the role and resilience of Middle Eastern river basin commissions in managing the transition to the anticipated decrease in freshwater availability and the likelihood of increased tension between riparian states. Through an analysis of the design and capabilities vested in the region’s existing commissions, the chapter proposes that they in fact lack adaptive capacity to manage uncertainties and address interstate disputes. To minimize the potential threat of increased regional tensions or conflict, the chapter argues that existing commissions need to be redesigned and empowered with additional capabilities.