Climate Security in Mainland Southeast Asia: A Scenarios-Based Assessment
Publisher: Center for Climate and Security
Author(s): John Lichtefeld
Date: 2022
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Economic Recovery, Governance, Renewable Resources
Countries: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam
The states of Mainland Southeast Asia—Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam—are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts, owing to their geographic situation and heterogeneous levels of internal development. Regional populations are already experiencing the first order physical conse- quences of a changing climate, including an increased frequency of extreme weather events, higher mean temperatures, decreased weather predictability, and rising sea levels.
Beyond these immediately observable consequences, an array of cascading second order effects is likely to emerge over the coming years, as the region’s inhabitants are forced to cope with unstable agricultural conditions, declining freshwater availability, and increasing energy costs. The future of Mainland Southeast Asia’s development, as well as its overall stability and security, will be determined in large part by the vulnerabilities and resilience of its constituent states, as well as the willingness of governments in the region to work together and with global partners to mitigate climate risks before consequences are imminent and unavoidable.
This paper posits four “climate security scenarios” built on analyses of two key determinants of insecurity: state governance capacity and social and economic inequality.