Afghanistan: Climate Change Science Perspectives
Publisher: Afghanistan National Environmental Protection Agency
Author(s): NEPA and UN Environment
Date: 2016
Topics: Climate Change, Renewable Resources
Countries: Afghanistan
Afghanistan has a unique geography, ranging from the glaciered peaks of the Hindukush to the arid deserts of the South, covering altitudes from over 7,000 m.a.sl. down to under 250 m.a.sl. It is a landlocked country, located between 29-37° north, and its main geographical features are the very pronounced topography which are part of the Hindukush. These geographic features result in a generally dry and very characteristic continental climate. It is only influenced partly by the Indian sub-continent monsoon from the southeast, bringing moist maritime air in the summer. The majority of the country generally experiences cold winters and hot summers. Temperature ranges vary with elevation. This variation holds not only for the annual cycle but also within one day; temperatures often vary considerably from very cold nights to very hot days. Precipitation is mainly limited to the months between October and May, whereas the arid deserts receive less than 100 mm and in the mountains, mean annual precipitation is considerable above 1000 m.a.sl. In the mountains, most precipitation falls as snow during winter. Afghanistan’s variety of different climates has a large natural variability; however, over recent decades people are beginning to perceive climatological changes. There are very few scientific studies on climate change in Afghanistan. Analysis of past climate and future climate projections for Afghanistan only exist from a study of the Tyndell Center for UNDP and DFID country profiles1,2 of which results are also published in a study of the Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI)3 on the socio-economic impacts on climate change from 2009. The analysis of the past is based on observations of station data which have large gaps, especially after 1970. The projections are based on the third generation of Global Climate Models (GCM) generated within the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).4 They have a grid size of 2.5°, which means that Afghanistan is covered by a total of 19 cells. Regional climate models (RCM) or statistically downscaled GCMs have not been evaluated for Afghanistan comprehensively. In regard of its distinguished topography, a finer grid might bring new insights on climate trends for the future. This report intends to update the former findings and evaluate the consistency with a new generation of climate models. Due to the large gaps in the observation data, reanalysis data has been analyzed for different regions in Afghanistan (Figure 1) from 1950 to 2010. For future climate trends, seven different RCM GCM combinations generated from the CORDEX5 project have been evaluated. Their grid size is 0.5° and Afghanistan is covered by over 300 cells in total, which permits a spatially detailed analysis.