Climate Shocks and Political Violence: Beyond Scarcity, Beyond Africa CCAPS Research Brief No. 3
Publisher: Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law
Author(s): Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS)
Date: 2012
Topics: Conflict Causes, Land
Contrary to conventional wisdom, environmental scarcity is not always a trigger of political violence. In fact, political violence may be more prevalent in times of environmental abundance, when there are more resources and opportunities for violent tactics—and more incentive to engage in such actions. Much of the research on climate change and conflict has focused on Africa. However, the climate-conflict link is not unique to Africa; it’s a phenomenon of low levels of economic development and high levels of agricultural dependence. This study’s analysis of the relationship between drought and political violence finds that political violence is more prevalent following years of “good” rainfall, and that drought suppresses violence. These results provide support for what the authors call the mobilization model of environmental conflict, which seeks to explain how fluctuations in environmental factors and political violence may be related.