Missing the Target: Examining the Causes of the Conflict on the Afghanistan-Iran Border in May 2023
Publisher: ALCIS
Author(s): David Mansfield
Date: 2025
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Renewable Resources
Countries: Afghanistan, Iran
This policy brief shares key findings and implications for policy from a forthcoming XCEPT study on the escalation in violence along the Afghanistan-Iran border on 27 May 2023. The study addresses the misconception that this conflict was concerned solely – or even primarily – with the distribution of
water between the states along the Helmand River and growing tensions over upstream water diversion by Afghanistan. Combining the results of geospatial, meteorological data, and in-depth interviews (see box on methodology on page 4), the research shows that the conflict was caused by disputes over territory and border management, which intensified after the Taliban takeover in August 2021. It documents how this outbreak in violence prompted improved communications by the Iranian Border Guards and the Afghan Border Police, as well as the Taliban to act to curb cross-border smuggling.