Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia
Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Author(s): Cedric H. de Coning, Florian Krampe, Katongo Seyuba, and Thor Olav Iversen
Date: 2026
Topics: Climate Change, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Somalia
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.