Climate, Conflict, and Extremism: Ghana’s Security Challenges in the Sahelian Spillover

Apr 8, 2025 | Chiara Avanzi
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The central Sahel is one of the regions most affected by climate change. Temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly irregular and destructive, and essential resources like water and arable land are growing scarce. These conditions force herders, mainly from the Fulani and Tuareg ethnic groups, to alter their migration patterns to escape droughts, floods, extreme heat, and desertification. This shift often leads to resource-based conflicts with sedentary farming communities, such as the Dogon and Mossi, exacerbating ethnic and religious tensions.

At the same time, violent extremist organizations (VEOs) like Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel (IS-Sahel) are exploiting climate-related instability to further their territorial ambitions. They capitalize on local frustration over weak state institutions and deliberately sabotage water infrastructure, steal cattle, and provide alternative governance structures, including conflict resolution mechanisms, food distribution, and basic services. These tactics enable them to expand their influence in the region.