The Plow and the Well: Conflict Is Moving to Systems

May 6, 2026 | Russell D. Howard, Alicia Ellis, and Sarah Shoer
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Control over water, food, and supply chains is increasingly shaping how power operates in modern conflict with non-state armed groups. When these systems fail, recruitment rises; when they are controlled, they become tools of governance; and when they are deliberately disrupted, they can generate effects far beyond the point of impact. This framework shifts counterterrorism analysis from an actor-centric to a systems-centric approach.