Water, Power, and the Future of Conflict

Feb 11, 2026 | Nick Kraft and J. Carl Ganter
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In 2026, water is emerging as one of the world’s most contested shared resources. Water is becoming the protagonist in a story of global disruption and leverage. Droughts can escalate into diplomatic crises. Local shortages can metastasize into national-security problems. It is why water has appeared among Eurasia Group’s Top Global Risks in two of the past three years. In 2023, the warning centered on accelerating water stress. In 2026, the risk sharpened: water as  a strategic weapon is becoming a threat to economic, political, social, and environmental stability.

This recognition is no longer confined to environmental or social impact. At the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, water moved from the margins to the core agenda. The rise of a more prominent #BlueDavos, alongside preparations for the UN Water Conference later this year, reflects a broader moment: converging shocks — from climate volatility and geopolitical fragmentation to energy transition and AI-driven demand — are turning 2026 into a defining year for fresh water.